Updated: 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC

What changed, who is affected, and where the risks sit now

As of this update, al-Makha (Mocha) on Yemen’s Red Sea coast has suspended operations following nearby security incidents, according to preliminary advisories. [VERIFY: official notice or port authority/carrier advisory confirming al-Makha suspension due to nearby security incidents] Multiple advisories report a halt (pending verification). [VERIFY: cite specific local notice numbers/dates or industry circulars confirming the halt] Immediate impacts most directly touch coastal feeders, breakbulk, and dhows serving Taiz and adjacent markets. [VERIFY: carrier schedule changes or local trade association notes identifying affected services] Trackers indicate secondary effects across transshipment flows near the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

Geographically, the port sits just north of Bab al-Mandeb, the choke point between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The brief includes a map inset locating al-Makha versus Djibouti, Aden, Jeddah, and Port Sudan. Public AIS platforms indicate diversions and slow steaming across the southern Red Sea since the halt began. [VERIFY: AIS data/screenshots timeframe and examples of vessels showing diversions/slow steaming]

Against this backdrop, the closure tightens an already sensitive corridor. UNCTAD estimates 10–15% of global trade moves via the Red Sea–Suez. [VERIFY: UNCTAD report/date supporting trade share via Suez/Red Sea and methodological notes] Disruptions near Bab al-Mandeb often push schedules, premiums, and crew routing beyond the local trigger, depending on network design and voyage risk assessments. [VERIFY: analyst notes or insurer/broker commentary on cascading effects of Bab al-Mandeb disruptions]

Methodology and verification: This playbook compiles current port authority notices, carrier advisories, UKMTO/MSCHOA bulletins, broker/insurer guidance, and industry trackers. Items marked [VERIFY] require confirmation against the original circulars and should be validated before operational use. Quantitative figures in this advisory are indicative and may vary by vessel size, service string, cargo profile, insurer, and security posture. This document does not constitute legal advice; consult counsel and your insurers for binding interpretations.

Operator benchmarks at a glance (for the current al-Makha port closure context):

  • War-risk premium: typically quoted as a percentage of hull value for Red Sea passages and tends to rise during periods of elevated risk; confirm current levels with your broker. [VERIFY]
  • Diversion surcharges: commonly structured as per‑TEU adders for via‑feeder calls and transshipment, with separate bunker adjustments for long detours; verify tariff notes and advisories for your lanes. [VERIFY]
  • Convoy/security delays: often measured in hours for assembly and checks; transshipment dwell can stretch to multiple days during disruption waves, depending on yard utilization. [VERIFY]
  • Inland Aden→Taiz (where lawful): typically quoted per truckload; transit includes checkpoints and vetting that can extend total time, subject to route permissions. [VERIFY]
  • Schedule reliability on affected loops: tends to fall versus pre‑closure baselines, with recovery tied to convoy windows and available berths. [VERIFY]
  • Operational SLAs achievable in‑crisis: on‑time performance can remain in the high‑80s with force majeure carve‑outs; claims timelines generally lengthen; any service credits are usually governed by carve‑outs and caps. [VERIFY]

Field picture and immediate operational guidance

UKMTO advisory (current): 'Masters are advised to exercise heightened vigilance and report incidents promptly in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.' (UKMTO, ongoing) [VERIFY: link/ID and date of the current UKMTO bulletin carrying this language]

Operationally, authorities and several carriers have announced pauses in al‑Makha port calls (subject to verification). [VERIFY: port/cargo handling suspension notice or carrier circular] Labor, trucking, and inland distribution tied to the port have reportedly paused or reduced activity. Traders are shifting to Aden and, where permitted and safe, to informal landing points. Carriers are revising feeder rotations and reviewing call windows at Aden, Djibouti, and Jeddah to absorb Yemen‑bound cargo. [VERIFY: specific carrier advisories/schedule updates showing rotation changes/reviews]

Operating picture: In practice, expect convoy formation delays measured in hours on south Red Sea legs, transshipment dwell measured in days during peaks, and Aden terminal gate queues that extend driver turn‑times. Carriers and brokers are publishing temporary Red Sea surcharges and documentation fees for re‑consignments/re‑manifests; validate current figures directly in carrier and broker advisories. [VERIFY]

What this means for shippers now

Go/No-Go: Do not schedule al‑Makha arrivals or departures until authorities confirm reopening. [VERIFY: official closure statement and conditions for reopening] Use vetted coastal corridors for movements in the southern Red Sea and follow convoy guidance where applicable.

Current risk level: Severe at or near al-Makha; High across the southern Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb; lower for Gulf of Aden transits relative to the southern Red Sea, with exact levels varying by voyage plan and mitigation measures.

Immediate actions:

  • Rebook Yemen-destined cargo via Aden or Djibouti with inland distribution where lawful and secure. Confirm route permits and escort requirements before dispatch.
  • Obtain updated war-risk quotes and P&I confirmations before fixing. Require voyage-by-voyage approvals in writing.
  • Insert explicit Red Sea security and force majeure terms in all transport and 3PL SOWs. Include deviation rights and surcharge pass-through language.
  • Pre-advise consignees in Taiz and Ibb with revised ETAs and any customs re-clearance steps. Maintain a rolling ETA.
  • Stage safety stock at Jeddah or Djibouti for critical SKUs serving Yemen’s southwest. Size buffers to one extra feeder cycle, adjusting for SKU velocity and convoy timing.

Turnaround and cost expectations (plan-level): For planning purposes, brokers and underwriters typically return Listed Area voyage approvals in 1–2 days, subject to workload and requirements; 3PL SOP updates for alternate‑port routings usually take several days to a week, driven by EDI changes and inland vendor onboarding. Expect higher landed cost with each added leg or security step; rate diversions low, moderate, or high based on transshipment, inland escorts, and detours.

Three routing scenarios: ETAs and cost impact vs. normal

Assumption baseline: Pre-closure direct coastal feeder call at al-Makha under a normal security posture.

  • Best case (divert to Aden): Relay via Aden Container Terminal, then inland distribution where lawful. ETA delta: typically +1–3 days depending on berthing and inland security checks. [VERIFY: recent cases/carrier advisories showing +1–3 day deltas via Aden] Cost delta: generally a modest per‑TEU diversion component plus inland haulage where used; current carrier advisories characterize this as a surcharge‑level impact. [VERIFY: carrier surcharge advisories referencing Aden diversion costs]
  • Base case (transship at Djibouti): Mainline discharge at Doraleh/Djibouti, feeder to Aden or permitted anchorage, then inland. ETA delta: commonly +4–7 days given transshipment dwell and convoy timing. [VERIFY: schedule data/advisories supporting +4–7 days via Djibouti] Cost delta: higher than Aden diversion due to double‑handling and security services; several lines have flagged temporary surcharges. [VERIFY: examples of temporary surcharge notices related to Red Sea disruptions]
  • Worst case (avoid southern Red Sea): For non-Yemen cargo, reroute via alternate legs (for example, via Jeddah with inland fallback or, for East–West flows, Cape of Good Hope on select lanes). ETA delta: often +10–14 days on Asia–Europe if Cape routing is required, depending on service string and weather. [VERIFY: historical or recent Cape routing deltas on Asia–Europe lanes] Cost delta: driven by additional bunker burn, schedule disruption, and insurance posture; broker commentary has referenced periods when war‑risk premia approached 1% of hull value for certain passages at the height of tensions. [VERIFY: Lloyd’s List 2024 article and broker quotes supporting ~1% hull WR premium]

Note: Ranges reflect this week’s carrier advisories and broker bulletins. [VERIFY: identify representative advisories/bulletins and dates] Actuals swing with vessel size, slot availability, convoy windows, and local permissions.

Illustrative mini‑case (before/after):
Before (direct al‑Makha feeder): median cycle time baseline with no diversion; landed cost baseline = 100 units.
After (Aden diversion): ETA typically +2 days; landed cost often +5–8 units due to a diversion component and inland haulage where permitted.
After (Djibouti transshipment): ETA typically +5 days; landed cost often +10–15 units reflecting double‑handling, security services, and potential storage.
Context: deltas vary by service string, yard utilization, permit status, and insurer requirements; use this as a modeling scaffold and replace with current quotes.

Added operator structure: Current advisories commonly reference per‑TEU diversion surcharges for Aden; aggregated per‑TEU transshipment and security components for Djibouti; inland haulage/escort charges quoted per load where lawful; and bunker adjustments for long detours. These are published as line items with effective dates and may change on short notice. [VERIFY]

Practical alternatives to al-Makha: operational pros/cons

  • Aden (Yemen): Modern container terminal and general cargo berths. [VERIFY: Aden Container Terminal/port authority specs] Pros: Established customs processes; comparatively better yard equipment. [VERIFY: port fact sheet or operator materials on equipment and customs processes] Cons: Security checks add time; inland moves to Taiz require route vetting and permits. [VERIFY: carrier or port notices on additional screening impacting dwell times] Draft/berth depth: Suited to standard feeder and mid‑size container ships per port authority notices. [VERIFY: official berth depth and max LOA/beam specs] Congestion: Periodic spikes during diversion waves. [VERIFY: historical congestion advisories or KPIs during disruption periods]
  • Hodeidah (Yemen): Under different control and subject to international constraints. [VERIFY: UN/OFAC/EU notices on Hodeidah control and access constraints] Pros: Proximity to northwest Yemen. Cons: Access limitations and sanctions exposure must be reviewed case by case with counsel; capacity and equipment constraints likely. [VERIFY: port status notes by UNVIM/aid agencies or shipping lines] Draft: Generally suited to smaller tonnage per public port guides. [VERIFY: published berth/depth limitations]
  • Djibouti (Doraleh): Deep‑water facility with high mainline frequency. [VERIFY: Doraleh Terminal specs and weekly service counts] Pros: Reliable transshipment; bonded warehousing options. [VERIFY: terminal operator materials on transshipment performance and bonded warehousing] Cons: Requires an additional inland or feeder leg for Yemen; terminal charges are typically above some regional averages. [VERIFY: tariff comparison or shipper/broker benchmarking] Draft: Deep‑water berths suitable for mainline vessels per terminal specifications. [VERIFY: terminal specs—max draft/LOA/TEU capacity] Congestion: Manageable but can tighten during disruption waves. [VERIFY: historical KPI/advisories evidencing congestion variability]
  • Jeddah (Saudi Arabia): Major Red Sea hub with multiple terminals. Pros: Abundant sailings and improving customs efficiency. [VERIFY: service frequency tables and customs process updates from Saudi authorities] Cons: Longer inland legs to Yemen border areas and strict compliance requirements. [VERIFY: cross-border compliance and distance/time estimates] Draft: Accommodates large container ships per port data. Congestion: Congestion fluctuates; carriers generally reallocate capacity. [VERIFY: carrier/terminal notices on sloting and congestion trends]
  • Port Sudan (Sudan): Gateway for northeast Africa. [VERIFY: trade/cargo flow references for Port Sudan] Pros: Viable for aid and project cargo staging. [VERIFY: humanitarian logistics references or operator case studies] Cons: Domestic constraints and variable port productivity; long overland to Yemen is impractical for commercial flows. [VERIFY: port performance reports and overland route feasibility] Draft: Mixed‑depth berths; match against vessel particulars. [VERIFY: berth depth tables from port authority] Customs: Documentary diligence required.

Customs considerations: Re‑consignment and manifest amendments are typically required when diverting from al-Makha. [VERIFY: customs/regulatory guidance on diversion documentation for Yemen/Djibouti/Aden] Engage your 3PL or broker to pre‑clear HS codes and secure any licenses needed at secondary ports to prevent storage or penalties.

Customs friction structure: Documentation changes often incur line‑item fees per B/L and can trigger short correction cycles. During diversions, error rates tend to rise and storage exposure can accrue quickly at terminals with limited free time; confirm local tariff sheets for Aden and Djibouti before dispatch. [VERIFY]

Insurance, security advisories, and P&I considerations

From a risk‑transfer perspective, the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden remain in the Joint War Committee (JWC) Listed Areas. [VERIFY: latest JWC Listed Areas circular number/date] Underwriters are imposing voyage‑by‑voyage approvals for calls and transits, with war‑risk premiums elevated versus pre‑2023 levels. [VERIFY: broker rate sheets or reports comparing pre‑2023 to current WR levels] Lloyd’s List reporting in 2024 noted instances where premia approached 1% of hull value for Red Sea passages at the height of tensions, though current levels vary by carrier, insurer, and mitigation. [VERIFY: Lloyd’s List 2024 article and broker quotes supporting ~1% hull WR premium]

P&I clubs cover lawful trade but may exclude losses from breached warranties or sanctions. [VERIFY: P&I club circulars on cover conditions/sanctions] Operators evaluate armed guards for coastal legs case by case. MSCHOA guidance continues to emphasize BMP5 best practices, hardening measures, and coordinated reporting through UKMTO. [VERIFY: BMP5/MSCHOA reference] Record all mitigation steps in the voyage file.

Insurance cost structure: Additional premium (AP) for Listed Area transits is typically applied as a percentage of insured value for cargo and as a percentage of hull for H&M, with endorsements processed on short turnaround; any security riders for armed teams on coastal legs are usually quoted per transit. Confirm exact terms with your broker. [VERIFY]

Contract exposure: force majeure, laytime, and customer comms

  • Force majeure triggers: Use clauses that cover port closures due to security incidents. When invoking, cite official notices from authorities or carriers and timestamp your communications.
  • Laytime/demurrage: Specify whether time counts at alternate anchorages and during convoy assembly. Seek rider clauses for Red Sea security delays.
  • Charter party language: Add deviation rights for safe port selection and substitution, plus security and war-risk surcharge pass-throughs. Align with owner approvals before nomination.
  • Customer templates (samples):
    • “We have redirected your shipment from al-Makha to [Alternate Port] following a security-related closure announced on [date]. New ETA: [date]. Additional screening and inland routing are required under current advisories.”
    • “War-risk and security charges now apply to Red Sea legs. We will itemize these as separate line items and review weekly as market conditions change.”

Operator-grade contract and SLA guardrails (add to SOWs now):

  • Term and exit: Spot/per‑load or multi‑year MSAs; include a standard without‑cause termination window and immediate termination for sanctions breach. [VERIFY]
  • Volume commitments and variance: Define monthly volume bands with a stated variance range; below‑floor volumes trigger a make‑whole or rate re‑opener; above‑ceiling volumes allow brief capacity relief windows. [VERIFY]
  • Service levels: Red Sea crisis SLAs should target on‑time delivery within a defined tolerance window (for example, +72h), milestone messaging within hours of events, and rapid exception response; outside carve‑outs, service credits should be pre‑defined and capped. [VERIFY]
  • Charges and indexation: Tie bunker adjustments to a published index with a clear reset cadence; pass through war‑risk and security at cost with evidence; set inland detention free time explicitly; publish terminal storage by port and day‑band. [VERIFY]
  • Claims: Establish cargo claim filing windows for visible and concealed damage; target claim cycle times; detail GA security requirements if declared. [VERIFY]
  • Compliance: Include sanctions/screening warranties; two‑way indemnities; and audit rights for war‑risk surcharge proofs within a defined post‑invoice period. [VERIFY]

Worker and trader impact: local supply chains under strain

On the ground, local media and association accounts suggest stevedores, truckers, and small traders tied to al-Makha have seen halted income and stalled inventory turns as vessels omit the port call. Wholesale buyers in Taiz are rationing orders and shifting to overland resupply from Aden where feasible. Humanitarian planners are rebalancing pipelines through Djibouti and Aden to sustain flows to nearby governorates. [VERIFY: UN/INGO logistics cluster updates on pipeline adjustments]

Measured effects (indicative): Informal market reports indicate inventory cover among small traders in Taiz has tightened, spot trucking rates on Aden–Taiz lanes have risen, and daily casual labor at al‑Makha has dropped materially while the halt persists. [VERIFY]

Key takeaways for 3PLs and procurement teams

  • Lock in multi‑port routings for Yemen and southern Red Sea cargo through Q4, with Aden and Djibouti as primary pivots.
  • Quote with split components: ocean base rate, war‑risk, security handling, and inland legs itemized.
  • Adopt a rolling ETA policy for all Red Sea bookings and publish a weekly risk bulletin to customers.
  • Coordinate with marine insurers early; pre‑approve routes and call windows where possible.
  • Consult our Red Sea disruption hub for rolling carrier advisories and AIS traffic snapshots before fixing new liftings.

Added specificity: For al‑Makha port closure scenarios, stage safety stock equal to one extra feeder cycle at Jeddah or Djibouti where feasible. Budget separate WR/SEC line items and document re‑consignment costs in internal approvals using current advisories. [VERIFY]

Data notes, sources, and next steps

Inputs include port authority notices, carrier advisories, UKMTO and MSCHOA guidance, and trade data reported by UNCTAD. [VERIFY: enumerate key documents with dates in an appendix or footnote] Conditions change quickly; figures reflect current bulletins and may change. We will update this advisory as new notices are issued.

Tracking cadence: Refresh risk levels multiple times per week; reconcile WR/SEC surcharges weekly; revisit SLAs on a monthly cycle until al‑Makha reopens. Maintain an appendix of all [VERIFY] items with links and notice dates.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is any cargo still being accepted for al-Makha?

Not at this time. Carriers and local authorities indicate port operations are suspended. [VERIFY: specific carrier/authority statements] Book to alternate ports such as Aden or Djibouti and arrange compliant inland legs where permitted.

How much longer will my shipment take if diverted?

Plan for 1–3 extra days via Aden in the best case, 4–7 days via Djibouti with transshipment, and over a week for routings that avoid the southern Red Sea entirely. [VERIFY: sample voyage comparisons supporting the ranges] Actuals depend on berthing, security checks, and convoy timing.

What happens to insurance if I reroute through the southern Red Sea?

The area remains on the JWC Listed Areas, so underwriters commonly require prior notification and charge additional war‑risk premium. [VERIFY: latest JWC list and broker guidance on notification/premiums] P&I cover continues for lawful trade but may exclude losses if trading warranties or sanctions are breached. [VERIFY: P&I circulars clarifying exclusions] Coordinate with your broker before fixing.

Which alternate port should I choose for Taiz-bound cargo?

Aden is usually the fastest for southwest Yemen when security and permits allow. Djibouti works well for transshipment and staging. Jeddah offers frequency but entails longer inland or cross‑border steps. [VERIFY: recent transit time comparisons and access rules] Review current access rules and inland security with your 3PL.

Can force majeure apply to delayed deliveries tied to the closure?

It may, if your contract lists security‑related port closures or government actions. [VERIFY: legal precedent or standard clause references] Issue timely written notices, cite the clause, and document official advisories. Update customers with revised ETAs and surcharges as they are confirmed.

Operational risks and friction: Where Risks Materialize and How to Price Them

Where Aden falls short under capacity constraints: When yard utilization sustains at high levels, average dwell can rise materially. Security screening surges add incremental inspections, increasing the chance of holds. Inland to Taiz is contingent on route permissions; revocations can occur on short notice, forcing temporary storage or return‑to‑port.

  • Hidden costs: Extra port moves/restows, driver standby, and missed convoy slots can cascade into multi‑day delays. Replace any assumed flat diversion fee with per‑event line items in your model.
  • Operational challenges: SLA disputes around force majeure boundaries; documentation mismatches (consignee vs. permit holder) triggering re‑clearance cycles that consume days and increase storage exposure.

Djibouti transshipment friction: Double‑handling increases damage exposure; claims incidence can increase during disruption waves. Warehousing overflow risk grows if feeder windows slip, and EDI cutovers for new transshipment points introduce additional failure modes.

  • Hidden costs: Bonded storage accrues quickly when free time is short; re‑manifest fees apply; T.H.C. at some hubs runs above regional norms. [VERIFY]
  • Tech integration: EDI/visibility updates and UN/LOCODE alignment are frequent delay drivers; mismatches can hold carrier release until corrected.

Jeddah pivot risks: High frequency helps capacity but compliance is tighter; a subset of Yemen‑bound or dual‑use cargo can face documentary review/hold for several days. Overland/cross‑border complexity elevates brokerage workload and extends lead times. [VERIFY]

Insurance and claims friction: If an incident triggers General Average, shippers must post GA security (commonly a percentage of CIF value); missing paperwork can immobilize cargo for weeks. Some P&I clubs are tightening endorsement language—breach of geographic warranties can void cover for the event.

People and safety risks: Extended gate queues raise driver exposure; an increase in night moves is often needed to meet windows, elevating risk profiles and costs due to shift uplifts and escort requirements.

Inventory and working capital: Adding one feeder cycle of buffer increases inventory carrying cost; quantify this using your WACC, SKU velocity, and storage rates to avoid understating working capital impact.

3PL program pitfalls: where savings expectations erode

  • Uncontrolled variation in accessorial charges: Security, documentation, and storage accessorials are not governed tightly; savings on ocean freight are offset by unmanaged line items.
  • Over‑distribution of inventory: Safety stock is pushed to multiple nodes (Jeddah, Djibouti, Aden) without a replenishment plan, inflating handling and carrying costs.
  • Zone skipping not modeled: Skipping Red Sea calls changes inland mileage and brokerage complexity; if not modeled, quoted savings erode in execution.
  • SLA over‑engineering: Crisis‑era SLAs are set unrealistically; service credits accrue while performance is already inside force majeure—double‑counting the exposure.
  • Uncontrolled storage accrual: Diversion‑driven dwell triggers storage charges that grow quietly when EDI events are late or consignee instructions lag.
  • 3PL fee structure mismatch: Program management fees rise with added routing complexity and exception handling, offsetting nominal freight savings; use a tiered fee tied to measured exception volumes.

Hidden cost drivers (specify them in quotes and SOWs)

  • Security handling: Clarify what is included (escorts, additional screening, document vetting) and what triggers out‑of‑scope charges.
  • Documentation: Price re‑consignment and re‑manifest actions per B/L and specify lead times; require proof of cause for any additional filings.
  • Storage and free time: Publish day‑bands by port and define who owns storage after free time; add a notification SLA before charges accrue.
  • Detention/demurrage: Set free‑time rules for inland legs and container returns tied to convoy windows; define carve‑outs for security closures.
  • Restows/extra moves: Quote per move and pre‑authorize thresholds; require terminal EDI evidence for any restow charges.
  • War‑risk and surcharges: Mandate weekly disclosure of applicable adders with bulletin references; retain audit rights for proof‑of‑charge.

Decision frameworks you can use today

Weighted scoring matrix (set weights, score, compute weighted total):

Criteria Weight (example) Aden Djibouti Jeddah Hold at origin
Transit reliability (within tolerance) High Strong Moderate Moderate Low
Security posture (lower is better) High Moderate Strong Strong Strong
Total landed cost impact Medium Lower Moderate Moderate Lower (short‑term)
Compliance complexity Medium Moderate Moderate Higher Lower
Inland feasibility to Taiz/Ibb Low Higher Lower Lower Lower
Weighted total (example) Favorable Neutral Less favorable Situational

Adjust weights to your risk appetite; for humanitarian cargo, increase emphasis on Security posture and reduce Cost impact weight.

Port suitability matrix (use for routing decisions)

Port ETA delta vs. al‑Makha Cost delta Risk rating Inland to Taiz (where lawful) Compliance complexity Notes
Aden Short Low to moderate High Hours‑scale transit Medium Best for SW Yemen when permits allow
Djibouti (Doraleh) Moderate Moderate Medium Feeder then inland Medium Strong mainline connectivity; higher T.H.C.
Jeddah Moderate to long Moderate Medium Longer and complex High High sailing frequency; strict compliance
Hold at origin N/A Storage + working capital Low (security), High (supply risk) N/A Low Use for non‑urgent SKUs if sufficient buffer exists

Landed cost line‑item template (fill and send to your 3PL)

Line item Benchmark/range Your quote Notes
Ocean base rate (FCL/LCL) As filed
War‑risk premium (cargo) Structure: % of CIF (verify current) [VERIFY]
H&M WR AP (if owner‑arranged) Structure: % of hull (info; verify current) [VERIFY]
Security handling surcharge Structure: per‑TEU/BL line item (carrier‑published)
Diversion/transshipment (Aden/Djibouti) Structure: per‑TEU diversion/transshipment adders
Terminal handling (delta vs. norm) Structure: surcharge where applicable Djibouti
Storage (day‑banded) Structure: per‑TEU/day by port and band
Demurrage/detention after free time Structure: per‑TEU/day after defined free time State free time explicitly
Inland haulage + escorts Structure: per‑load (route/permit dependent) Where lawful
Documentation (re‑consign/re‑manifest) Structure: per B/L
3PL program mgmt fee Structure: per order; complexity tiers Define triggers for uplifts

Pricing normalization: compare proposals on a like‑for‑like basis

Fully loaded cost per TEU (illustrative formula): Base ocean rate + War‑risk premium (cargo) + Security handling + Diversion/transshipment + Terminal handling delta + Inland haulage/escorts (where lawful) + Storage/detention/demurrage + Documentation (re‑consign/re‑manifest) + 3PL program management fee + Risk reserve (for schedule variance).

Scenario comparison: Build Baseline (pre‑closure al‑Makha), Aden Diversion, and Djibouti Transshipment scenarios. For each, calculate fully loaded cost and ETA based on current advisories and contractual terms. Include a Cape/avoidance scenario for non‑Yemen cargo where relevant.

Sensitivity testing: Stress test with: (a) convoy wait ± one day, (b) transshipment dwell ± two days, (c) yard utilization moving from normal to high, (d) inland permit revocation mid‑week, and (e) WR/SEC adders ± a carrier‑published step change. Note effects on landed cost, inventory days of cover, and SLAs.

Risk decision tree: when to divert, delay, or stop‑ship

If cargo is humanitarian/critical AND buffer is running low, then route via Aden if permits are active; else via Djibouti. If both are unavailable, escalate for government liaison promptly.

If annual Yemen freight spend is modest AND SKUs are non‑urgent, then consider holding at origin briefly and monitor. If spend is material OR contractual penalties are significant, then prioritize Djibouti/Aden with buffers. If spend is high and service‑critical, then dual‑source routings (Aden + Djibouti) and pre‑position inventory for added cover.

If convoy wait exceeds your defined threshold AND WR/SEC surcharge rises above your pre‑set tolerance, then trigger cost re‑approval and consider deferment by one sailing.

BAB‑7 Red Sea Ops Playbook: a field method you can execute this week

  1. Basemap: Pin AIS‑confirmed safe corridors; set minimum CPA distances. Refresh at least every other day.
  2. Approvals: Lock JWC‑listed endorsements and P&I confirmations voyage‑by‑voyage (target expedited SLAs with your broker).
  3. Buffering: Add one feeder cycle of safety stock at Jeddah/Djibouti; keep additional containers in‑cycle per critical SKU to absorb dwell swings.
  4. Security: Enforce BMP5, implement SSAS drills, and log UKMTO check‑ins at entry/exit within a tight variance window.
  5. Allocation: Split volumes between Aden and Djibouti to hedge congestion waves; re‑balance weekly based on dwell and reliability metrics.
  6. Terms: Activate deviation rights, WR pass‑throughs, and service‑credit carve‑outs; use defined volume variance bands.
  7. Signal: Issue a weekly Red Sea bulletin to customers (OTIF, WR spend/TEU, dwell, incidents) within two business days of week‑close.

SEO note: This guidance is specific to the al-Makha port closure and is updated as official notices are published. [VERIFY]

Executive close: The al‑Makha suspension tightens a fragile corridor. Teams that anchor decisions to verified advisories, price to fully loaded costs, and pre‑define exception paths will protect service and margin. Discipline—tight approvals, explicit accessorial controls, and clear customer comms—keeps Red Sea operations predictable enough to plan.

Reporting informed by coverage from aljazeera.com.